Demand Forecasting & Predictive Analytics
Decide How Much to Make With a Model, Not a Hunch
Excess stock leaves money sitting on a shelf; too little hands the sale to a competitor. Striking the balance depends on reading historical data correctly — yet in most businesses the call is still made on one experienced person's instinct.
We build forecasting models that weigh sales history, seasonality, promotional effects, holiday calendars and even weather together. The model does not replace judgement; it gives judgement a measurable base.
Key Capabilities
Time Series Modelling
Trend, seasonality and cyclical effects decomposed and modelled, producing separate forecasts by product, category or region.
External Factor Integration
Weather, public holidays, school terms and promotional calendars enter the model as inputs, with each factor's contribution reported separately.
Confidence Intervals & Scenarios
A probable range rather than a single number, letting you build stock strategy against optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios.
Inventory Level Optimisation
Forecasts feed directly into safety stock and reorder point calculations, accounting for both lead time and demand volatility.
Deviation Monitoring & Alerts
Alerts fire when actual sales diverge meaningfully from forecast, making it obvious when the model needs refreshing.
ERP & BI Integration
Forecasts flow automatically into your ERP and BI dashboards, so nobody has to work in a separate system.
Where It Is Used
- Retail and chain store planning
- Food production and fresh goods management
- Wholesale distribution and dealer shipments
- E-commerce stock and promotion planning
- Production capacity and shift planning
- Spare parts demand prediction
- Energy consumption forecasting
- Tourism and hospitality occupancy forecasting
How We Work
Data Quality Assessment
Depth and consistency of sales history is examined, and distorting periods such as stockouts are flagged.
Model Build & Comparison
Several models are trialled and backtested on historical periods, and the best performer selected.
Business Rule Integration
Minimum order quantities, shelf life and capacity constraints are added to the model as business rules.
Go-Live & Periodic Refresh
Forecasts begin generating on schedule, with performance monitored and the model retrained at set intervals.
A Forecast Is Worth Something Only If It Changes a Decision
However accurate a forecast is, it is useless if it does not change your purchasing or production decision. So we start by pinning down which decision it will feed and wire the output straight into it.